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4/2/2022
View Free Premium Football Tips. View Over 1.5 goal selections that can be used as singles once odds reach 2.00 and together as a multi bet. Here’s a simple horse betting formula we created. A = the finish position of a horse in its last race. B = the number of times the horse has finished worse than third in its last six races. C = the numeric value given to the horses’s chances today, with the lowest number being the best bet. One day, I met Stephen Browne, a professional horse racing punter. He was working on a powerful horse racing system. We immediately started to work together and joined our forces. After 2 years of hard work and thousands of day testing the system, we finally discovered THE ONLY FORMULA that.
The Expected Value of a bet shows us how much we can expect to win (on average) per bet, and as such is the most valuable calculation a bettor can make when comparing bookmakers odds. How can you calculate Expected Value in sports betting in order to predict your winnings? Read on to find out.
Here’s the formula: If you want to bet your $10 on Alvarez, multiply that sum by the quotient of 11 ÷ 8 (1.375). Your winnings would be $13.75 ($10 x 1.375). Your payout would be $23.75 ($10 initial stake + your winnings of $13.75). To bet on Bet on Formula One just click CLAIM above – open an account and Claim a healthy deposit bonus and start betting. FOLLOW Sportbetting-Odds Twitter for daily updates on stats, the best bets, new betting promotions and betting sites, the best odds and much more.
Expected Value
The amount a player can expect to win or lose if they were to place a bet on the same odds many times over, calculated through a simple equation multiplying your probability of winning with the amount you could win per bet, and subtracting the probability of losing multiplied by the amount lost per bet.
A simple example of Expected Value (EV) put into practice - if you were to bet $10 on heads in a coin toss, and you were to receive $11 every time you got it right, the EV would be 0.5.
This means that if you were to make the same bet on heads over and over again, you can expect to win an average of $0.50 for each bet of $10.
How to Calculate Expected Value
The formula for calculating Expected Value is relatively easy – simply multiply your probability of winning with the amount you could win per bet, and subtract the probability of losing multiplied by the amount lost per bet:
(Probability of Winning) x (Amount Won per Bet) – (Probability of Losing) x (Amount Lost per Bet)
To calculate the expected value for sports betting, you can fill in the above formula with decimals odds with a few calculations:
- Find the decimal odds for each outcome (win, lose, draw)
- Calculate the potential winnings for each outcome by multiplying your stake by the decimal, and then subtract the stake.
- Divide 1 by the odds of an outcome to calculate the probability of that outcome
- Substitute this information into the above formula.
For example, when Manchester United (1.263) play Wigan (13.500), with a draw at 6.500, a bet of $10 on Wigan to win would provide potential winnings of $125, with the probability of that happening at 0.074 or 7.4%.
The probability of this outcome not occurring is the sum of Man Utd and a draw, or 0.792 + 0.154 = 0.946. The amount lost per bet is the initial wager – $10. Therefore the complete formula looks like:
The EV is negative for this bet, suggesting that you will lose an average of $0.20 for every $10 staked.
How Does Expected Value for Sports Betting Help?
Remember, a negative EV doesn’t mean you’re going to lose money. Unlike a coin toss, sports betting odds are subjective, and therefore if you outsmart the bookmaker, you’re likely to make money.
If you calculate your own probability for a match that differs from the implied probability of the odds, you could see where to find a positive EV, and therefore the best chance to win.
For example, the odds imply that Wigan only have a 7.4% chance of winning. If you calculate (maybe using a system like Poisson distribution) that Wigan has a 10% chance of winning, the EV for betting on a Wigan win jumps to $3.262.
It’s also a perfect measure for comparing odds in arbitrage betting, which is discussed in our article What is arbitrage betting.
Calculating the EV of bets gives bettors more information about the value of their bookmaker. While low-margin bookmakers like Pinnacle have EVs of around -$0.20, it’s not uncommon for typical bookmakers to have an EV of -$1.00 – for every $10 stake you would be likely to lose a $1 .
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