3/26/2022»»Saturday
Preakness 2017 Trifecta
3/26/2022
Cloud Computing is the 2017 Preakness Stakes winner. The horse that didn't run in the Kentucky Derby was fresh for Saturday's race in Baltimore, Maryland. Going off at 13/1 before the race, Cloud. $579,890 Trifecta Pool $13,251,251 Pick 3 Pool $780,037 Pick 4 Pool $2,665,640 Pick 5 Pool $1,869,866 Pick 6 Jackpot Pool $370,759 Last Raced #Horse M/Eqt.A/SWt PP St ¼ ½ ¾ Str Fin Jockey Odds $1 08Apr17¨§Aquª 2Cloud Computing L 3C126 2 2 3¨ 3² 3² 2ª 1² Castellano J 13.40.
on
What a difference a few weeks makes. Two weeks ago, we were looking at one of the most wide open Kentucky Derby fields in recent memory with no discernible favorites and about a dozen horses going off as legitimate long-shots. Now, just a half week before The Preakness Stakes, we have an overwhelming favorite, a horse that was a long-shot two weeks ago now listed as the third favorite and a bunch of horses we THOUGHT were in the same class now all bunched substantially behind the presumptive best horse/jockey in the field.
There are also some other substantial variables to consider this weekend as well. The Kentucky Derby is a slightly shorter track at just a mile and a quarter as opposed to the Preakness Stakes’ mile and three-sixteenths. The biggest difference is the reduced field size. The Kentucky Derby is a unique animal as twenty horses bunch up the track and make it tougher for slower-starting horses to get clear of the pack. The Preakness will send just eleven horses to the gate, making it a much more wide-open race. And lastly, considering how sloppy and wet the track was at Churchill Downs, we are looking at a radically different horse race this weekend.
Will the different conditions give us a different result, or can Always Dreaming keep his Triple Crown dreams alive heading into the third leg at Belmont?
For those of you familiar with horse racing, you already know: these odds are very, very fluid and will move more radically than any other major American sporting event. It is wise to shop around a little bit before putting down any wagers on this weekend’s race, as you will likely see a slightly different number everywhere you look and every time you refresh that page. With that being said, here are the odds per top horse racing betting site, Bovada:
Preakness Stakes Odds:
- Always Dreaming -125
- Classic Empire +300
- Lookin At Lee +1000
- Gunnevera +1600
- Hence +2000
- Conquest Mo Money +1800
- Cloud Computing +1400
- Multiplier +4000
- Senior Investment +3300
- Term of Art +3300
***Odds updated on 5/18/17
You’ll notice that unlike the Kentucky Derby, where Always Dreaming (our Across The Board, or ATB, selection in the Derby Preview) is now minus-money or 10/11 as opposed to the 9/2 or +450, he went off at in the Derby. Classic Empire is the co-favorite for most of the pre-Derby week before sliding behind Irish War Horse’s late flurry of action, and is now priced similarly to the Derby at +400, but well behind Always Dreaming. Gunnavera, who got a lot of late attention in Derby betting, is all the way back at fourth at +1200. Always Lee, who stunned Louisville by placing at the Kentucky Derby despite massively long odds, is going off third at the Preakness at +800. There is one more Derby familiar name lurking lower in the money order with Conquest Mo Money checking in at +1600. Multiplier, Senior Investment and Term of Art round out the field.
Will a newer, smaller field shake up the results? Always Dreaming has been the best horse all year, followed closely by Classic Empire. Will that form hold this weekend?
Preakness Field:
The Favorite – Always Dreaming: -110
Always Dreaming was impressive in thundering down the stretch to win a crowded and sloppy Kentucky Derby. His 2:03.59 time was one of the slowest Derby winning times in quite a while, but again, the muddy sloppy track slowed down the field. This is still an excellent horse, though likely not an all-time great. However, at this price, he is presented as a legit Triple Crown candidate.
Always Dreaming hasn’t lost in 2017. Having won the Derby and the Florida Derby before it, he is the top-graded horse by a substantial margin on Horse Racing Nation at 8.70. The next closest it Classic Empire at 8.40 and all subsequent horses fall below seven.
The odds don’t lie. Everything is stacked in favor of Todd Pletcher getting a good look at a Triple Crown at Belmont in three weeks.
The Contender – Classic Empire: +400
A disappointing Kentucky Derby has really narrowed the odds on Classic Empire, but it could be a mistake to overlook this horse. Prior to the Derby, Classic Empire won the Arkansas Derby at a blistering 1:48.93. He also took third in a quick Holy Bull (a G2 race) finishing behind Irish War Cry, who isn’t running the Preakness and Gunnevera.
Classic Empire is considered a middle-pace or stalker type horse. There is some sentiment that with Royal Mo injuring himself in his morning workouts that this might be a slower pace out of the gate. That could be an advantage for horses like Always Dreaming and Conquest Mo Money to have plenty of gas left for the final stretch run. Without an early burner to tire out the favorite, it may be a challenge for Classic Empire to chase down the favorite.
There is something alluring about getting an Arkansas Derby winner at +400, but I am going to stay away from this familiar name and trust what we saw at the Derby as a more accurate predictor in the Preakness.
The Challenger – Conquest Mo Money: +1600
They say style makes fights. Well pace makes races. As mentioned above, without another early-starter aside from the favorite Always Dreaming, the pace of the race could really favor Conquest Mo Money and get him into a winning trifecta position. I like the value at +1600 as a nice way to goose up the profits on some more exotic wagers.
He took second at the Arkansas Derby, behind Classic Empire and ahead of Looking at Lee. He also won the Mine That Bird Derby, beating out Kentucky Derby participant Irap. This son of Uncle Mo has good speed out of the gate and should be able to stay on leader pace in the beginning of the race. Will he have enough speed to hold off some of the middle chargers like Classic Empire? He was not able to in the Arkansas Derby, but should be a fresher horse having not raced since the April 15th Arkansas Derby.
There is some decent value in a horse that can get out in front early without a ton of speedy close horses charging in behind him. I like the upside on Conquest Mo Money to beef up a trifecta ticket.
The Upstart – Looking at Lee: +1100
This horse received little attention prior to the Kentucky Derby, but after a surprising place finish at Churchill Downs, he has vaulted into money position in the early odds. But perhaps the Derby was just a nice day in an odd and sloppy race rather than a sign this is a legitimate contender to win the Preakness. First off, this horse hasn’t won a major race yet. The second-place Derby finish was the high water mark in the career of Looking at Lee. He finished third in Arkansas, sixth at the Grade-2 Rebel Stakes and third at the Southwest Stakes behind two horses that didn’t enter either the Derby or Preakness.
I’m not letting the Kentucky Derby over-inflate my opinion of this horse. He is a good horse, but not a great one. The +1100 feels a little too slim and reeks of some recency bias. I’m out.
Preakness 2017 Trifecta Results
Long-shots With Value – Gunnevera: +1200
2017 Preakness Trifecta Payout
The Derby was a disaster, finishing seventh after some real expectations of finishing in the money. However, HRN still has Gunnevera as their third-rated horse and likes both his speed and stamina on a longer track. He finished third at the Florida Derby, second in the Holy Bull – ahead of Classic Empire and just behind Irish War Cry and won the Fountain of Youth. This is a fast horse that had a bad day in Louisville two weeks ago. I still like the value in Gunnevara.
In the last twenty Preakness Stakes, exactly half have been won by the Kentucky Derby winner. The similar track lengths, the close proximity of the two races and the tendency for most of the same top horses to enter both race probably contribute to the similar results. Five times the Derby winner finished second. So, a whopping 75% of the time, the Derby winner did no worse than place at the Preakness. That tells me don’t try to outsmart the room, especially with Always Dreaming being suited for this track and opposing field far more than nearest challenger Classic Empire. It is very unlikely Always Dreaming finishes worse than second. We can get cute and try to “nail the crazy upset” but I’d rather take the money.
Here are my favorite wagers for the 2017 Preakness:
WIN: Always Dreaming -110
ATB: Conquest Mo Money +1600
TRIFECTA: Always Dreaming, Conquest Mo Money, Gunnevera
The Preakness Stakes airs on NBC Saturday, May 20th at 5pm
Please enable JavaScript to view the comments powered by Disqus.